Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?
Closes April 13, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -6.0pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.9% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891976
This event has 25 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 13: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
33% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
13% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: -20.0pp
33% → 13%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
15% YES (+2.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this