Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Closes April 15, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.8pp above current market price; market at 15% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.9% ↑, VIX +2.2% ↑, Gold +0.6% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
13% / 16%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
15%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1912775
This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 21, 2026: 27%, April 18, 2026: 22%, April 14, 2026: 19%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~18%.
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Trough probability
12% YES — lowest in period
Apr 9, 2026
Biggest move: -5.0pp
17% → 12%
Apr 9, 2026
Current
13% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this