Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
Closes April 14, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.9pp above current market price; market at 18% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.0% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$20K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
17% / 19%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1921096
This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 21, 2026: 27%, April 18, 2026: 22%, April 14, 2026: 18%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~19%.
Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been br
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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