Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$25K
Liquidity
$41K
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1929773
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in: 47%, Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the St: 12%, Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium : 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~35%.
Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Ho
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Trough probability
8% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
8% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this