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Markets/Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
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Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

37%YES
63%NO
Vol 24h$15K
Liquidity$26K
Bid / Ask36% / 38%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesApr 30, 2026

FM Estimate

45%

Market Price

47%
↑ Overpriced 2.0pp
Macro fundamentals-3.5pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in Apr: 44%, Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in: 37%, Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium : 34%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-22.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1921803