ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Warriors (-1.5)
Share on X

Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

47% / 49%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Warriors (-1.5)" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Warriors (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1932489

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 46%, Spread: Warriors (-1.5): 43%, Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 34%.

1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
46%

Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

43%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
34%
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
31%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5)
29%
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
26%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this