Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

Closes April 11, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

89%FIS

−3ppvs market 92%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 92% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓

-5.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute09:43 PM

Polymarket Price

92%YES

9%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

87% / 94%

Spread

7.00pp

Expert Signal

91%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937571

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 98%, April 30, 2026: 98%, April 15: 97%.

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

98%

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

98%