Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.7pp above current market price; market at 2% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.9% ↑, ETH +3.1% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$24K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
1% / 3%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943721
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?: 26%, Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?: 12%, Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~42%.
Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
2% YES (-1.3pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this