ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
Share on X

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Closed April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
93%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$56

Bid / Ask

13% / 16%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

7%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1953658

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. there be a run scored in the first inning?: P: 100%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: 84%, Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5): 66%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-31.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -27.5pp

38% → 11%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

7% YES (-4.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 93¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this