Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 20?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

11%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

6.5pp

Vol 24h$94K

Liquidity$0

Bid / Ask2% / 5%

Spread3.20pp

ClosedApr 21, 2026

Macro fundamentals+6.5pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets15 markets

This event has 15 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 20?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 40%, Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?: 7%.

Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 20?

100%

Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

40%

Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 20?

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-51.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 20?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 3.20pp. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 20?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2029333