Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$743K

Liquidity$0

ClosedMay 4, 2026

calibration-10.1pp

historical_prior-2.1pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+58.5pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds immediate significance due to its price jumping to 100% from 42% in zero days, indicating a near-certain outcome is now priced in. The surrounding markets show contrasting certainty, with Sassuolo at 100% and other potential competitors at 0%, reinforcing the current consensus on Lazio's victory.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets10 markets

10 deadline markets. Combined YES = 537% — 437pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

SS Lazio

SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04

100%

AS Roma

AS Roma win on 2026-05-04

100%

Manchester City FC

Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04

83%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $743K has been traded. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2038191