Markets/Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Market Price

83%YES

17%NO

Vol 24h$207K

Liquidity$34K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 23, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachi: 83%, Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - P: 60%.

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

83%

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallach

60%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+28.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" at 83% YES / 17% NO. In the last 24 hours, $207K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 83%, NO 17%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2054005