Markets/Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Market Price

60%YES

40%NO

Vol 24h$286K

Liquidity$148K

Bid / Ask59% / 60%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 23, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachi: 100%, Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - P: 60%.

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

100%

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallach

60%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $286K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2054046