Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Market Price
14%YES
86%NO
FM Estimate
12%Vol 24h$104K
Liquidity$238K
Bid / Ask13% / 14%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesMay 31, 2026
Macro fundamentals-2.7pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Why this matters
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Outcome Markets2 markets
2 deadline markets. Market implies ~54% chance none resolve YES.
by May 8
Iran closes its airspace by May 8
14%
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
-2.0pp
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran closes its airspace by May 8?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $104K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Iran closes its airspace by May 8?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2133404