Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Closes August 4, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +3.8% ↑, S&P +0.4% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$305
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
28% / 32%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
30%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $305 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/599305
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Mallory McMorrow: 54%, Abdul El-Sayed: 30%, Haley Stevens: 15%.
Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this