Markets/Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:59 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES

70%NO

Volume 24h

$64K

Liquidity

$60K

Bid / Ask

29% / 29%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+21.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Feb 22, 2026

Biggest move: -11.1pp

37% → 26%

Mar 24, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

30% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 30%99%

Buy YES@ 30¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 70¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $64K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616902