Markets/Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Market Price

63%YES

37%NO

FM Estimate

59%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.1pp

Vol 24h$187

Liquidity$20K

Bid / Ask60% / 65%

Spread5.00pp

Macro fundamentals-5.8pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

the Democrats

Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026

63%

the Republicans

Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026

36%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

63%anchor

Kalshi

65%+2.5pp

Weighted Consensus65%±2.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $187 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00pp.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/629337