Markets/Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Market Price

35%YES

65%NO

FM Estimate

32%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.0pp

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$19K

Bid / Ask32% / 40%

Spread8.00pp

Macro fundamentals-5.7pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

the Democrats

Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026

63%

the Republicans

Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026

35%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00pp.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/629338