Markets/Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:25 AM UTC

Closes October 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$30K

Liquidity

$62K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.30pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Full event →

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

11%

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-18.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly18.4%

½ Kelly9.2%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 18.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637021