Markets/Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?

Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

$89K

Liquidity

$78K

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Full event →

the Paris mayor election?

80%

the Paris mayor election?

20%

the Paris mayor election?

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Feb 27, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $89K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/646000

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