Markets/Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?

Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$173K

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Full event →

the Paris mayor election?

80%

the Paris mayor election?

20%

the Paris mayor election?

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/646001

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