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Markets/China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

11%YES
89%NO
Vol 24h$21K
Liquidity$119K
Bid / Ask10% / 12%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

12%

Market Price

11%
Aligned
Macro fundamentals+2.2pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. China x Philippines military clash before 202: 17%, China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: 11%, US x China Military clash before 2027?: 10%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~63%.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
17%

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

11%
US x China Military clash before 2027?
10%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-2.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-19). "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677407