Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$734
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
16% / 19%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
2026
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
12% YES — lowest in period
Mar 13, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: +29.5pp
21% → 50%
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
50% YES — highest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Current
16% YES (+2.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $734 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678746
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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