Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$611
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
11% / 13%
Spread
2.10pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
2026
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Biggest move: +6.6pp
3% → 10%
Mar 21, 2026
Current
10% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $611 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678749
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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