Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Closes April 30, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$49K
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential…
2027
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. The market closes on April 30, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679029
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