Markets/Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:48 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2027

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$59K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential…

2027

Full event →

the 2027 French presidential election?

25%

the 2027 French presidential election?

20%

the 2027 French presidential election?

10%

the 2027 French presidential election?

36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+12.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+12.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679026