Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$292
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
77% / 82%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
80%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $292 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687276
This event has 20 active outcome markets. Yang Seung-jo: 80%, Choo Mi-ae: 75%, Park Soo-hyun: 19%.
Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gube
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
79% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
77% YES (-3.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this