Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$31K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
10% / 12%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province…
2026
32 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.7pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687279
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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