Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$41
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690201
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before : 13%, Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before : 12%, Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher befor: 10%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~16%.
Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this