ForecastMind
Markets/USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?
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USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

26%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$66K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

26% / 27%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.3pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 26%99%
Buy YES@ 26¢

-1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.7%
½ Kelly0.9%
Buy NO+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $66K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690622