EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$33K
Liquidity
$26K
Bid / Ask
37% / 39%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
60% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Trough probability
31% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 19, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
54%
Mar 22, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: -23.5pp
63% → 39%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
67% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
41% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1515617
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Correlated Markets
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