Markets/Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:27 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

23%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$151K

Liquidity

$149K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit China by April 30?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $151K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump visit China by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/706279