Markets/Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 09:04 AM UTC

Closes June 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$38

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

12% / 12%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

-2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.0%

½ Kelly1.0%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on June 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/708766