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Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Closes October 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

62%YES
39%NO

Volume 24h

$152

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

61% / 62%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

62%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026…

2026

Full event →
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
100%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
83%
the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele
62%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
47%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
24%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
16%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
14%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
10%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
6%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
5%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
0%
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%

44 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 62%99%
Buy YES@ 62¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 39¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $152 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 62%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789407

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