Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Closes September 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
10% / 11%
Spread
1.30pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state…
2026
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on September 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789953
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