Markets/Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 07:03 PM UTC

Closes June 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$74

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+9.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/824261