ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Closed April 14, 2026

Polymarket Price

39%YES
62%NO

Volume 24h

$975K

Liquidity

$26K

Bid / Ask

38% / 40%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $975K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1972311

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5): 52%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O: 39%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O: 32%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

39%

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: -14.0pp

53% → 39%

Apr 14, 2026

Current

39% YES (-14.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 39%99%
Buy YES@ 39¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 62¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this