Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Closes April 28, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 52% may be overpriced with macro signals showing 10Y yield +6bps ↑, VIX -1.3% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
52% / 53%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1249981
This event has 13 active outcome markets. there be no change in Fed interest rates afte: 98%, there be no change in Fed interest rates afte: 91%, 25 bps after the April 2026: 53%.
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
55% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
54% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this