Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Closes April 28, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing 10Y yield +6bps ↑, VIX -1.3% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1249982
This event has 13 active outcome markets. there be no change in Fed interest rates afte: 98%, there be no change in Fed interest rates afte: 91%, 25 bps after the April 2026: 53%.
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+12.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this