Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

14%

Vol 24h$175K

Liquidity$326K

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Macro fundamentals+0.8pp

low confidence · 1 signals

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-49.9pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets38 markets

38 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1972% — 1872pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2?

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2