ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
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Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5

Closed April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

35%YES
65%NO

Volume 24h

$54K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

39% / 47%

Spread

8.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598496

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Capitals vs. Penguins: 60%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5: 56%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5: 35%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-37.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

17%

Apr 11, 2026

Biggest move: -37.5pp

55% → 17%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

17% YES (-37.5pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 35%99%
Buy YES@ 35¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 65¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this