ForecastMind
Markets/China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Share on X

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

14%YES
86%NO
Vol 24h$15K
Liquidity$83K
Bid / Ask14% / 15%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

14%

Market Price

15%
Aligned
Historical patterns-1.0pp
Macro fundamentals+0.5pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: 14%, China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: 12%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~74%.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

14%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
12%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "China x Japan military clash before 2027?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-19). "China x Japan military clash before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687642