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Markets/China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

20%YES
80%NO
Vol 24h$10K
Liquidity$45K
Bid / Ask19% / 20%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

20%

Market Price

20%
Aligned
Macro fundamentals+1.6pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. China x Philippines military clash before 202: 20%, China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: 14%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~67%.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

20%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
14%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677408