Markets/Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$1.3M

Liquidity$544K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 23, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (: 100%, Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects -: 100%, Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachi: 87%.

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL

100%

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Wi

100%

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

87%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+15.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.3M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2053983