Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$96K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
13% / 13%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $96K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731344
This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30: 26%, April 30: 10%, April 30, 2026: 9%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~56%.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this