Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
37% / 40%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
May
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1708086
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