Markets/Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$801K

Liquidity

$245K

Bid / Ask

12% / 13%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

9% → 14%

Mar 20, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 88¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $801K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1581306