Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
38% / 45%
Spread
7.00pp
Expert Signal
42%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
May
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
43% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Current
42% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1708109
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