Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$62K

Liquidity$0

Bid / Ask30% / 31%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 30, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Price swing

74pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$62K

24h total

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+50.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Combined YES = 127% — 27pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5

Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)

100%

Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)

28%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $62K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2119255