Markets/Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

10% / 12%

Spread

1.60pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: +5.8pp

14% → 20%

Mar 15, 2026

Peak probability

22% YES — highest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Current

12% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1552201